Evaluate policy impacts

Before I send this to the ministry, make the evaluation easier to use for policy decisions: put the headline recommendation and expected fiscal impact on the first page, make the counterfactual assumptions explicit, flag where data are weak, and add a one-sentence implementation implication for each recommendation.

Our draft says the tax credit increased investment by 8 percent. The treasury analyst emailed asking if increased tax avoidance or shifting investment timelines might be biasing our estimate. I can't fully test those channels with available data. What is the most defensible answer to give now about the robustness of our estimate and the right next empirical step?

On three evaluations we understated the fiscal cost of incentives because off-budget credits and carryforwards weren't tracked consistently. That led to heated meetings and policy reversals. Which habit should I change to avoid this pattern: expand fiscal data requests, add conservative sensitivity bounds, or require treasury sign-off before publication? Recommend one habit and how to implement it across reports.