You need to hire a Pilot. You ask candidates to write a 500-page essay on "The
History of Aviation." One candidate gets an A+. Should you hire them?
๐ญ How to Think About This
Just because something is specific (History of Aviation) and hard (500 pages) doesn't mean it is
useful. This represents the concept of Predictive Validity: Does the test
actually predict the job?
Is this a good test?
You are using "Dedication" (Essay) as a proxy for "Skill" (Flying). But you can
be a dedicated writer and a terrible pilot. The cost of being wrong is a crash.
Dangerous.
You measured the wrong skill. A test must match the task.
Knowing how a wing works is different from knowing what to do
in a storm. Knowledge is necessary but not sufficient.
Too Risky.
When lives are at stake, "Maybe" is not enough.
Since "Writing Ability" has almost zero correlation with "Reflexes" or "Spatial
Awareness," the test has Low Predictive Validity. It tells you
nothing about their future performance.
Correct. Invalid Test.
The Insight: Many real-world tests (Standardized Tests,
Interviews, Essays) have low validity. They measure how good you are at
taking the test, not doing the job.
The Strategy: "Does high performance on the test guarantee
high performance on the job?" If no, the test is noise.
๐ฏ Hitting the Target
Reliability
Checks: Can they write?
Result: Consistent, but wrong.
Validity
Checks: Can they fly?
Result: Accurate.
๐ค Which thinking lens(es) did you use?
Select all the lenses you used:
๐จโ๐ฉโ๐ง For Parents & Teachers
๐ฑ Everyday Tests
Kid: "I got an A on the spelling test!"
Parent: "That's great! But can you use the words in a sentence?"
Kid: "No, I just memorized the letters."
Parent: "Then the test didn't measure 'Writing'. It measured 'Memory'."
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