"Data shows that people who eat more sugar have more cavities. Therefore,
sugar causes cavities." Which fact most STRENGTHENS this conclusion?
๐ญ How to Think About This
Correlation ("they happen together") is weak evidence. To prove Causation ("one makes the other
happen"), you need a Mechanism: a story of how it works.
Select the best evidence:
Opinions, even from experts, are not logical proof. Logic relies on evidence, not
authority. Why do the dentists think that?
Weak Support.
This is an Appeal to Authority. It suggests the conclusion is true, but it
doesn't limit other possibilities (like genetic bad teeth).
If people who eat sugar ALSO don't brush... maybe it's the "not brushing" that
causes cavities, not the sugar! This introduces a second suspect.
WEAKENS the argument.
This provides an Alternate Cause. Now we don't know if sugar
is the culprit or just an innocent bystander.
This statement explains the biological steps: Sugar โ Bacteria โ Acid โ Cavity.
It draws the map from A to B.
Correct. The Mechanism.
The Insight: A Mechanism bridges the gap between "happening
together" (Correlation) and "making it happen" (Causation).
The Strategy: To Strengthen a causal claim: finding the
mechanism OR rule out alternate causes. To Weaken it: find an alternate
cause.
โ๏ธ From Data to Truth
Mechanism
Explains: The Process.
Effect: Makes causation plausible.
โ Strengthens.
Alternate Cause
Explains: Another Possibility.
Effect: Casts doubt.
โ Weakens.
๐ค Which thinking lens(es) did you use?
Select all the lenses you used:
๐จโ๐ฉโ๐ง For Parents & Teachers
๐ฑ Everyday Logic
News: "People who own horses live longer!"
Conclusion: "Buying a horse makes you live longer." (Causation)
Reality: Rich people own horses. Rich people have better healthcare. (Alternate Cause:
Wealth).
Activity: Find "silly correlations" in the news with your kids.
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